Anthony Joshua vs Otto Wallin fight breakdown
Two-time world heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua (26-3, 23KO) faces Swedish southpaw Otto Wallin (26-1, 14KO) on Saturday, December 23, at the Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as part of the brobdingnagian ‘Day of Reckoning’ card that is co-headlined by Deontay Wilder vs Joseph Parker.
These heavyweights are former rivals, having met twice before in the amateurs; Joshua currently two-nil up over the Swede.
A young AJ first beat Wallin in the 2010 Haringey Box Cup final in London, 30-21 on points; then they fought again seven months later in 2011 in a Sweden vs England dual match in Sweden, producing the same winner but a much closer result of 30-27.
A year and a half later saw Joshua win the 2012 Olympics and there began his meteoric rise to super-stardom.
Wallin was able to upgrade his silver runner-up medal the year after when he won gold at the 2011 Haringey Box Cup. But with the absence of an Olympic gold medal or similar accolade, he spent the first 20 fights of his professional career in relative obscurity fighting around northern Europe, until he followed his second coach, two-weight world champion Joey Gamache, to New York in 2019.
Although their first two Stateside fights ended in a No Contest and a loss, they are currently on a six-fight unbeaten streak, with wins over Dominic Breazeale, Travis Kauffman, Rydell Booker and Murat Gassiev.
33-year-old Wallin uses his southpaw jab as a defensive tool, to keep his opponents away, distracted and off-rhythm. He employs his jab copiously and often doubles and triples it up, even adding swiping right hooks at the end.
In his last fight with Murat Gassiev, last September, Wallin defeated the former unified world cruiserweight champion by boxing on the backfoot and keeping the Russian at length to win via split decision, away from home in Turkey.
The Scandinavian became famous for giving Tyson Fury one of the hardest nights of his entire career, when he cut him from a legitimate punch in round three of their 2019 showdown in Las Vegas. That ghastly laceration bled profusely for the remainder of the bout and later required 47 stitches to close.
The Swede lost unanimously but earned his plaudits in the process and his name was now known around the world. As of December 2023, the heavyweight is ranked WBC #9, IBF #2, WBO #7, IBO #19.
Joshua comes up against another southpaw, a stance he noticeably struggled against when he first met Oleksandr Usyk in 2021. He was at a complete loss of ideas against the Ukrainian the first time around and lost his belts comprehensively. 11 months later, he managed to close the gap in levels between them with the fight ruled as a split decision. Although it was a second loss at the hands of Usyk, AJ did make the return fight a lot more competitive, which proves the 34-year-old is still learning and improving.
The Watford man raced to 20 KO victories in as many fights between 2013-2017, until he met WBO champ Joseph Parker in a unification clash in 2018. Parker was very mobile in that fight and rarely engaged for any of the 12 rounds, coupled with some dubious refereeing Joshua was forced to hear the final bell for the first time, but collected his fourth world title in doing so.
In 2019, he made his disastrous U.S. debut against unheralded Andy Ruiz Jr., stopped in the seventh stanza in one of heavyweight boxing history’s biggest upsets.
In the rematch, AJ boxed sensibly and successfully to an uneventful unanimous points decision. He was aided slightly by an opponent that had added weight on top of already excess mass and hadn’t trained or prepared properly since becoming a millionaire.
Following his back-to-back defeats to Uysk, the fire still burns fiercely, and he truly believes he can become a world champion again.
In 2023, he won both bouts to make a statement that he is not going anywhere. Against tough American, Jermaine Franklin, who arguably deserved a draw at the very least against Dillian Whyte, he was given a lot to think about in his first non-title bout in eight years. AJ barely celebrated or acknowledged the victory despite winning 9-10 of the 12 rounds against a solid, stubborn, difficult opponent.
In his next outing, around five months on, he managed to score a stunning seventh-round knockout over ‘The Nordic Nightmare’ Robert Helenius to secure his first stoppage in 32 months.
Now, he embarks upon his third fight of the year, which is the first time he has had three bouts within the same calendar year since 2016, when he first became a world champion, when he won and defended the single IBF belt twice.
Back then he was knocking out opponents early, in devastating fashion, but now, after suffering a knockout and two points defeats, plus a trophy cabinet collecting dust, he is much more methodical and cautious.
He has said himself that he likes to play chess and wants to be known as a thinker in the ring, but it was his explosiveness and killer instinct that won him his world titles in the first place, which is the AJ of old that everyone wants to see return.
Having locked horns twice before and spent many rounds sparring together as professionals, each of these opponents have plenty of inside knowledge of one another.
Although most fight fans wanted to see Deontay Wilder standing in the opposite corner to AJ, this fight has a history behind and an underlying bitterness, with Otto Wallin desperate to even up the score against his old amateur rival. He is still seething about losing twice to this man and wants his revenge. The Swede also sees victory over Joshua as a gateway to securing a rematch with Fury.
And, for AJ, who many believe has lost his way in the sport, he too has a chance to dig up his buried fight with Tyson Fury by putting on a far more convincing performance than his domestic rival was able to four years ago. If AJ can knock Wallin out, it would get tongues wagging once again, comparison will be drawn and discussed, and the Joshua-Fury debate will resume once more, many months after dying out.
A KO win will also elevate his confidence ahead of the potential 2024 showdown with Deontay Wilder, which he will need to enter with every ounce of surety that he can gather.
Betting Odds
2/7 Joshua
10/3 Wallin
16/1 Draw
Predictions
Wallin is an all-round boxer with good fundamentals. He can box on the backfoot and he can come forward with intent too. He isn’t afraid to get to stuck in, so he won’t be troubled when under pressure.
The two losses to AJ will have hurt and simmered under the surface over time, so he will be just as up for this as was when he got his big break against Fury. We all saw how much he raised his game and gave a good account of himself in that fight, and now he gets another chance on the biggest stage of all against Joshua, so he will be just as motivated and dangerous again.
Joshua will be quietly confident knowing he has bested this man twice before, but will have dismissed that from his mind and will be treating Wallin seriously, as he does in every fight.
Against Franklin, under the guidance of Derrick James, AJ displayed some new and improved boxing skills, then, against Helenius, he showed he still possesses that explosive power that earned him a global following of fans in the earlier stages of his career.
Against Wallin, with Ben Davison in his corner, who knows the Scandinavian entirely, I expect to see him utilise both his boxing skills and strength. There may be a few early tentative rounds as they get to grips with each other, expect a duration of tactical warfare as they feel each other out, gauging the range, pawing at each other, exchanging jabs and feints.
As they grow into the contest, that’s when I expect to see the Brit start letting his big right hand go. Wallin doesn’t move his head much and he goes backwards in straight lines, so if AJ can set up the big shot, then he could knock him out.
That’s the outcome I want to see. If it goes the distance, then it could be close, as Wallin will be sure to bag a few rounds along the way; one judge gave him four rounds against Fury.
AJ displayed his improved boxing ability and skill against Franklin, then he demonstrated his power is still present and dangerous against Helenius, so now the Brit needs to combine the two to outbox then knock out Wallin in a big statement to end the year on.
Verdict: Anthony Joshua to win by knockout from rounds 7-12
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