Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder expert fight analysis
The thrilling trilogy between bitter rivals Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder, which has provided so much drama, shocks, twists and turns over the past three years, finally draws to a conclusion on October 9.
Defending his WBC World heavyweight title for the first time, champion Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21KOs) meets Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41KOs) for a final time at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend.
BBN’s Editor Tim Rickson has broken down the trilogy fight below:
Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 3
12×3 WBC World heavyweight championship contest
It’s time! The Final Chapter! The third thrilling finale fight between heavyweight’s two most colourful and outspoken characters finally takes place on October 9, around three months later than originally planned.
I have broken down the highly-anticipated action into five different sections to try to predict a winner:
Wilder’s 41 stoppages from 42 victories equates to a 97.6% KO ratio, which has to be one of the most fearsome heavyweight punching records of all-time. It’s the reason he has been likened to the hardest punchers in heavyweight history, such as George Foreman, Mike Tyson and Earnie Shavers.
Fury’s stats are considerably lower at 67.74% but he has two stoppages from his last three fights. In terms of his knockout ratio since joining the Kronk Gym, then it’s 100%!
Wilder has undoubtedly got the upper hand in power out of these two, but Fury’s mentality has changed under SugarHill Steward and he will be expected by many to score the knockout again, despite the contrasting statistics.
Fury’s clubbing punches are powerful, as you would expect them to be with 275lbs of weight behind them, but in their last fight, DW was downed many times but kept returning to his feet, never in danger of being knocked out completely, and was stopped while still standing.
Wilder’s shots have been likened to bullets by his sparring partners, who have been unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end of one.
There were several times where his right hand landed in the rematch. The first landed within the opening minute of the contest and made Fury blink, but managed to stay conscious… just! He said after the fight that it was almost lights out when that first right hander landed. After that, a few more buzzed Fury but he managed to ride most or slip them completely. Wilder’s drained energy from the third/fourth rounds meant that no more landed after that.
But, that danger is always present as long as ‘The Bronze Bomber’ is standing, so Fury’s biggest chance of losing the fight is under the Alabaman’s frightening power.
Wilder’s best chance is to try to land early because the more the fight wears on, the more his energy will wane, but that's if Fury approaches the fight the same as before, which he has promised to do. In their first fight, his strength was as powerful in the first round as it was in the last, which is why he managed to score the second knockdown in the final round, but it was a different fight and Fury didn’t use his weight and size to drain Wilder like he did in the rematch.
These rounds are going to be much harder and difficult for the American, so Wilder’s power may not be the same round by round.
Power: Deontay Wilder
Wilder’s technique and overall ability has historically always been brought into question. He has been very raw and wild earlier on in his career and quite crude at times.
It’s quite incredible that he actually won an Olympic bronze medal because he doesn’t really show a high level of boxing skill in his performances. However, he is effective and knows how to use his best assets, which is his raw power and speed. That said, he can be quite cute and clever at drawing opponents onto his shots.
In terms of ability and ring generalship, Tyson Fury is the man who shows a natural talent and boxing skill, having been brought up fighting from the day dot.
He can command that squared circle whether he’s on the front foot or back foot. His lifetime of fighting is evident through his performances, he knows every trick in the book.
Ring Generalship: Tyson Fury
In their first fight, Wilder showed more aggression; in the rematch, it was Fury.
During the course of their careers, Wilder has always been an aggressive fighter and quite scary at times, bloodthirsty too, making those outrageous comments in the past of wanting ‘a body’ on his record, and he has resorted to saying it again, talking about ‘cutting off the head’ of Tyson and ‘ending him for good’.
He is a ruthless fighter, who wants to literally ‘kill’ his opponents when in fight mode. I’m sure, when not in camp and of calmer mind, he doesn’t really mean what he says as a loving father and devoted family man.
Fury has boxed on the back foot in a calculated manner during most of his 12-year career and has been known to outthink and outpoint his opponents. Until his last fight, where he showed the world another side to him.
In that rematch, Fury was by far the more aggressive fighter, with Wilder constantly backing up and bleeding, breathing heavily, going down time after time.
It’s hard to tell who is going to back up who in the trilogy. Fury has already promised to approach the fight in the same way, but to knock him out even quicker than last time, while Wilder has also promised the same, so he isn’t expecting to go backwards like he did before, according to his statements. Wilder looked uncomfortable on the back foot and being pushed back cost him his first ever defeat.
If the pair clash in close quarters, then Fury has the better inside fighting game.
Aggression: Tyson Fury
Fury’s defence is far, far superior to Wilder’s, whose is non-existent a lot of the time. Up to now, his defense has been his offense.
He was caught cold so many times in their last fight. At times, he can move his head and upper trunk quick enough to get out of the way, but he is found stationary enough to be tagged often, relying on his counter-punching to deter his attackers.
Even when on the ropes, he just stands there, when the number one rule when backed up to the ropes is to move. Whether that’s to get off the ropes completely or just move side to side so you’re not a still target, but he does neither to help himself.
Despite Fury’s sublime movement and evasive nature for such a big man, he still gets caught. I’d say there’s always a least one big shot from Wilder per round that catches ‘The Gypsy King’. He was buzzed badly in the first round of their rematch, but he shook it off, then he was caught again in the next couple of rounds too. Fortunately, he managed to ride or slip most attacks but he is not going to win this next fight without getting caught by the world’s most dangerous puncher.
If he can avoid taking too many flush, then he should be able to launch his attacks and deliver his game plan to the letter, but even with such great defence, he is still in danger in every second of the contest while ‘The Bronze Bomber’ is still standing.
Defence: Tyson Fury
In terms of going forward, Tyson is superior in skill. His clever feints and fast footwork to get into range against Wilder last year was a delight to witness, easily proving his greater ability and intelligence.
He wasn’t just able to outjab Wilder, but he outgunned him as well with clubbing left and right hooks through the guard, bursting his eardrum, splitting his lip, and causing all kinds of pain.
When Wilder was backed up on the ropes, covered up behind a tight guard, Fury tapped at and parried his arms aside and threw fake shots in order to land the telling punches he wanted, and it was so very clever and effective and Wilder could only take the hits flush, with no answer back.
Although, Fury has the greater skill and craft in attack, Wilder is still the most dangerous puncher of the two.
In their first fight, he turned out Fury’s lights with that three-punch combination in the final round, which the giant Brit somehow managed to get up from.
When Fury scores a knockdown against Wilder, he gets straight back up; hurt but not finished, not even dazed either, really. More shocked and disappointed, but ready to give back. That said, Fury’s knockdowns did batter Wilder completely and drain him of all his confidence and energy. It was his bravery, courage and pride that kept him in the fight for so long, which was stopped at the right time in the seventh before he got too badly damaged.
However, in terms of punches, Wilder’s are fight-ending, so despite preferring Fury’s more expansive arsenal, I’d give this to Wilder still because he has get of jail power that can win him the fight at any moment, and he’s shown this many times in the past.
Offence: Deontay Wilder
Fury’s tactics to come forward and go for the knockout will surely be adopted again in this third title fight.
He has said himself that he’s going to do the same again but even faster than the last fight, so his game plan is already laid bare.
Wilder has made adjustments under new trainer Malik Scott so he should be an improved opponent in there, although many are dubious as to how much he can develop at this stage of his career.
He was beaten badly in the last fight, where he was backed up and became the hunted, instead of the hunter, which surely would see him turn those tables and go back to being the predator again.
Scott says Wilder has a toolbox full of tricks that he hasn’t been using, but it’s still hard to see how a 35-year-old, 45-bouter, in his 13th year as a pro is going to change that significantly.
If they both go forward then they will meet in the middle and exchange on the inside, which Fury will benefit from and be able to use his superior size and weight to lean on and deplete Wilder’s energy, like in the last fight. Similarly, if they meet in the middle then one will inevitably have to back up eventually under the greater pressure, but who?
I think it has to be observed that the initial date in the summer was postponed due to Tyson testing positive for COVID. Now, this may have been over three months back but the virus has been known to have a lasting effect. Miguel Berchelt, Alexander Povetkin and Kenshiro Teraji all had their fights postponed because of coronavirus and all lost. There may be nothing to this observation at all, but it's worth noting still.
Also Tyson and his wife Paris have had their hands full with their new-born daughter, Athena. Their sixth child was being treated in Intensive Care at Alderhay Hospital in Liverpool after complications set in. There were a few horrendous hours of deep concern for the parents to go through, but thankfully all was ok shortly afterwards.
Wilder himself also has a few changes in the background to deal with, such as a change of team, which usually brings a freshness and new vibe into camp, but could also be a mistake at the same time. It's completely natural for a fighter to have a few change of trainers during their career, but Wilder had been with Jay Deas and Mark Breland since 2005 – that's a very long time. Whether Malik Scott can improve Wilder or not remains to be seen – it could work for or against him – we just don't know yet.
Lastly, its worth visiting the mental aspect both these fighters could have. Right now, in the build-up, they have been and will continue to be super confident, both trying to outdo each other with their bravado, but for Fury, he is defending a world title for the first time ever in his career. That could bring added pressure.
For Wilder, he is coming back from a defeat, and like a football player returning from injury, it can play on anyone's mind. His game plan will be to back up Tyson with his power and he will likely try to stun him early to earn his respect again, but what will happen when Wilder finds himself backed up like he was in his last disastrious fight? Is he going to relive those negative moments and fall back into defensive mode and struggle to answer back under the painful recollection of what happened before? All important questions that cannot be answered until that first bell rings!
they say that rematches tend to go the same way throughout history. When Fury said he would knock Wilder out in the second fight, I believed him. Now he says he will do it even quicker than last time, I still believe him – Fury to win within six rounds.
Use the code BBN for 10% off all purchases at Fit-Bag