Terence Crawford vs David Avanesyan fight analysis
WBO welterweight king meets No.6 challenger
WBO welterweight champion Terence “Bud” Crawford (38-0, 29KO) defends his belt for a sixth time to former world champ David Avanesyan (29-3-1, 17KO) on Saturday, December 10 at the CHI Health Center in the titlist’s home city of Omaha, live on BLK Prime PPV.
Fans were initially frustrated at the announcement of this fight, further decreasing the likelihood of an undisputed showdown with WBC, WBA, IBF champ Errol Spence Jr. It was also somewhat unexpected with the emergence of unknown BLK Prime and the inflated pay-per-view price of $39.99.
The top five in the WBO were passed over in favour of No.6 contender, David Avanesyan, adding further scepticism, but most ardent boxing fans were welcoming of this championship clash because the Russian is a great fight for anyone, anywhere.
34-year-old Avanesyan is decent operator. He has good head movement, he likes to feint often to draw his opponents into traps, stepping into his front foot, distributing his weight forward to constantly make his opponent move and think. He puts weight on his front foot, dipping and feinting, to back his opponents up to judge how best to attack. He also possesses a good defence, opting to use a high guard regularly which he shoots out from with swift counters. He is experienced, has fought at every level in boxing, his biggest scalp being boxing legend 'Sugar' Shane Mosley in 2016, which sent the three-weight world champion into retirement.
Ava is also powerful. His short left hook is potent and he has a killer instinct. If you show weakness, the Russian will rush in and finish the fight. He walked top prospect Josh Kelly down with constant pressure in their fight to bloody him badly and batter him into submission within six rounds, which was another fight no one had him winning. He's now in a similar fight, although levels apart, but Kelly was an unbeaten fighter, switch-hitter, good mover with pure boxing skills, and when he took a knee in their fight, Avanesyan piled in to finish the job clinically.
Weaknesses include waiting a little too long at times and not always being first to the punch. His high guard can be easy to penetrate too – Crawford should have no trouble slipping his southpaw jab in-between his gloves when they’re exchanging at range. Like a lot of fighters are often guilty of, he can sometimes be seen lunging in when out of range at times and getting caught in the process while regaining shape.
Crawford is cerebral fighter and, a bit like Lomachenko, he data collects. Because of this, he can sometimes be a little slow to get off the mark in fights, so Ava will do well to start fast and try to clock up a few of the opening rounds in his favour.
The unbeaten Nebraskan is regarded as a pound-for-pound great right now, mostly for his pure boxing ability, being able to judge the range so well and to hit and not get hit. Every little movement he makes is near-perfect, which is why he is undefeated in over 13 years as a professional. He skyrocketed to fame when he became undisputed champion at super-lightweight in 2017, but British boxing fans first got to meet him properly in 2014 when he dethroned Scotsman Ricky Burns in his own backyard in Glasgow.
Bud has been a world champion for almost eight years now, and he is also a three-weight world champion – lightweight, super-light, welter – former undisputed champion, and has reigned as welterweight world champion for over four years now. The only frustrating thing about him in recent times is his inactivity, fighting in December 2019, November 2020, November 2021 and now December 2022 – that's a real waste of talent. Once a year is not enough! Especially as he is 35 now.
Avanesyan, trained by Nottingham man Carl Greaves, has won his last six fights by KO, and Crawford has knocked out his last nine! It’s a safe bet to say this might not go the distance.
Betting Odds
The odds are very lopsided with champion Crawford 1/6 to win at Betway, while challenger Avanesyan is widely written ofl at 15/2 Odds for a draw are 22/1, which suggests that’s a result not widely expected.
Predictions
I have a lot of respect for Carl Greaves as a trainer, he and David Avanesyan have made a great team over the years they’ve been together. A former pro himself, Carl will have his 147lbs student more prepared than ever before and this version coming into the ring is going to be the best we’ve seen yet.
Although his last opponent, Oskari Metz, was not very credible in competition to take him into this world title fight with a pound-for-pound great, his recent scalps prior to that have been very impressive. He was the first to beat Spanish powerhouse, Kerman Lejarraga, then knocked him out again in the rematch inside one round. Then he followed up with another consecutive first-round KO against Spaniard Jose Del Rio; then broke Olympian Josh Kelly’s heart with another stoppage upset, and Liam Taylor followed as another quick KO win. He only completed 20 rounds of a scheduled 72! Those five fine victories culminated in a bit of descent with the 2-minute KO of overmatched Metz.
In European title fights, Ava is 5-0, which tells us he is an accomplished winner at European level. He has won a world title before, but it was because he was elevated from interim to full world champion. He lost the belt in his first defence to Lamont Peterson
The reason why Bud is the clear favourie is because he is P4P No.1 or 2 and has it all – ring IQ and power. It’s a deadly combination, which is why he has reigned undisputed at super-lightweight and is only one fight away from undisputed status at welter.
I predict Avanesyan to get off to a bright start, matching Crawford well for the first few rounds, but to gradually be broken down by Crawford's intelligence in the middle rounds to eventually be stopped in the second half of the fight between rounds 7-12.
