Sunny Edwards vs Jesse Rodriguez fight analysis
IBF World flyweight champion ‘Showtime’ Sunny Edwards (20-0, 4KO) meets WBO titlist Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez (18-0, 10KO) in a unification clash this Saturday night, December 16, in Arizona.
Despite many believing this is the coming together of No.1 and No.2 in the 112lbs division, The Ring Magazine belt will not be on the line, because they have the WBC (Julio Cesar Martinez) and WBA (Artem Dalakian) champions ahead of Rodriguez in their top 10 ratings.
Some fans are disappointed by this, but instead we will see two world champions combine into just one – providing it doesn’t end in a draw – and thus leaving only two other world champs left for the unified winner to face in 2024.
Englishman Edwards is skillful backfoot boxer, very elusive, mobile and hard to hit. His boxing ability, skill and movement is unrivalled, he is rarely ever troubled by anyone.
Edwards has beaten everyone placed in front of him so far, but there’s not many notable names on his resume just yet, except for one.
To win his IBF bauble, he dethroned the champion Moruti Mthalane in his second reign as the IBF flyweight ruler, however he was over 40-years-old by then. Other victories have included fringe contenders such as Muhammed Waseem, Jayson Mama and Andres Campos.
But his career-best win came against former light-flyweight world champion Felix Alvarado, who really piled on the pressure with an increasing intensity to pin Sunny to the ropes, but the defending champion was always on top. You could tell that Sunny was happy to be held there at times, but if this occurs too often against ‘Bam’, then the results will be very different. Alvarado held his feet to sink in long hooks to body and head, whereas ‘Bam’ will cleverly shift his feet to find angles for his shots if in that same scenario.
Sunny says himself that boxing comes very easy to him, and you can see what he means when he fights so seamlessly at times, pacing around the ring with his hands down, showboating, barely troubled by most of his opponents, and he also describes himself as “a Rubix Cube tied up with a puzzle and a riddle after it”. And it’s true, he is terribly tricky.
Standing opposite, ‘Bam’ Rodriguez is a powerful boxer-puncher and one of the only available opponents out there that could match Sunny’s hand speed and footwork. He brings power, pressure, movement, accuracy and intensity. His feet are elite and can cleverly work his way into range almost unseen, and of course his ability to switch angles is masterful.
His CV is arguably more impressive than the Brit’s, as a two-weight world champion with the likes of Srisaket Sor Rungvisai and Carlos Cuadras as scalps.
The 23-year-old from San Antonio has a slight height and reach advantage and will get the home advantage as well, which could be pivotal if the fight goes deep.
‘Bam’ is known for his pressure and power, and has a fearsome stat that seven of his last 10 contests have ended early, but Sunny will be reassured that recently there’s only been one single KO from his last four fights.
Sunny will be aiming to skip, slip and counter his way to a points win, which is going to be that little bit more challenging to achieve in the States, whereas Jesse will want to trap his man in tight spots to get close enough to unload big shots in combinations from angles that can get through.
Betting Odds
2/1 Edwards (Ladbrokes)
1/2 Rodriguez (Betfair)
20/1 Draw (Sky Bet)
Predictions
Edwards has a reputation for conclusively outboxing and outpointing his opponents, however this next ring rival is the best he has faced so far, plus it’s in the Texan’s backyard who will be on the frontfoot all night – all variables that add up to make an expected Sunny Edwards unanimous decision more difficult than ever.
‘Bam’s’ elite footwork, ability to close distance, accuracy, explosiveness and awkward angles will trouble Edwards more than he’s used to. Despite the heavy pressure from Alvarado, he looked comfortable still, but I can’t envisage anyone being relaxed against Rodriguez because you have to be switched on at all times.
It goes without saying that Sunny will be treating this fight as the most important of his career, so he will bring the best version of himself.
He talks a good game and I admire Sunny’s confidence, but I don’t always agree with him because he talks about how he barely loses a minute or a second of his fights, but he does. He’s lost plenty of seconds, minutes and rounds, so I think he is in denial if he doesn’t actually acknowledge this.
He also says he chooses not to score knockouts because he doesn’t want to be in a position where he could put himself at risk, which is fine, but I find it a little delusional because the main reason, really, is that he doesn’t possess any power.
This could well be an irrational view, but I think his flaws could be laid bare in this fight against someone who can match a lot of Sunny’s best attributes whilst also bettering him in a few other departments too. Jesse has the IQ and footwork to be able to catch up to Sunny, and his ability to find angles to land accurate, hard shots through the guard will be something no other opponent has managed to do, so it will be interesting to see how Edwards deals with that.
We have seen Sunny suffer a flash knockdown to Marcel Braithwaite during their 2019 British title fight, which he recovered from well to prove he has a chin and heart.
Edwards’ best chance to win will be on points, but I’m backing to Rodriguez to close the distance and land some telling shots to either score a knockdown and win on points or to stop Sunny deep into the contest. It’s difficult to predict a knockout when we’ve never really seen Sunny badly hurt before. His ability to evade trouble makes me think he will reach the final bell, but I’ve got a feeling he will get knocked down during the bout, even if it’s just to take knee for a brief pause.
Verdict: Jesse Rodriguez to win on points and score a knockdown.
