Jessie Vargas vs Liam Smith – Who wins and why?
The Matchroom/DAZN boxing schedule for the spring was recently revealed and the first event was announced as Jessie Vargas (29-3-2, 11KOs) vs Liam Smith (30-3-1, 17KOs) on February 5 in Arizona.
Jessie Vargas is a former two-weight world champion from Las Vegas, Liam Smith is a former WBO super-welterweight champion from Liverpool.
The pair are both operating at the highest level despite their advanced age, so BBN asked their panel of experts who they think wins and why:
Matt Marsh
Former British champion
"Liam Smith is always a tough opponent for anyone and is cominng into the fight off a good win over Fowler, so I think he'll win this one on points or by late stoppage."
Dershan Desai
Boxing Writer
"Liam Smith has got the momentum off a great win against Fowler and boxing twice in 2021 (once in the away corner in the other man's country, which will set him up perfectly for this fight).
Vargas not boxed since the loss to Mikey Garcia at 147, who went on to lose to a 140-Pound known Spanish fighter Sandor Martin who he shouldn't be losing to if he was motivated.
I'm interested to see how Vargas does at 154 (he's only ever once boxed over the 147 Limit) coming up from 140. I expect the fight to be close early and Vargas to win the early rounds like he did against Mikey before Smith starts to take over in the later rounds.
I think Smith will knock him down and win a tight points decision."
Steve Wood
Boxing Manager/Promoter
"A great 50/50 fight, but with Vargas having the home advantage I am tipping him to win on points in a very close contest, maybe even a controversial one. No doubt, he is a quality boxer but has moved up in weights and not been active, so the size and activity for Liam could prove the difference and I do hope I am wrong, but it will have to be a KO for Smith to win."
Jazza Dickens
World title contender
"Beefy’s going to blast his head off his neck!"
Arijan Goricki
Featherweight prospect
"Although Vargas is a favourite, I think that Liam will win.
It will be good fight. Vargas Mexican pride will not let him to take step back and he will keep coming forward and take punishment from Liam, it will be toe to toe action. Also Liam is naturally bigger guy and Vargas' team have picked the wrong fighter for comeback fight after such a long inactivity."
Dee the Hat
Boxing Trainer
"I have to go with Liam Smith. He’s a class act in and outside of the ring and has shown after his recent performances that he’s not past his best in any way.
I’d also just love to see him do the business and bring some more big nights of boxing to Liverpool."
Anish Parekh
Boxing Writer
"Smith is underrated and I get the times has been misused by both Warren and now Hearn, who haven't been able to decide whether to use him as a stepping stone for upcoming prospects or as a genuine world title challenger.
He has proven his world class credentials by winning the WBO world title, losing convincingly only to Canelo. Whenever confronted by pretenders such as Liam Williams and Anthony Fowler, he has shown he is a level above.
Vargas is similar in some ways in that, whilst he is world class, he is not quite elite, having been defeated handily by an older version of Manny Pacquiao and, most recently, against Mikey Garcia.
However, Smith is the natural super-welterweight, has been more active, and has the superior skillset.
I'm taking Smith by late round stoppage and hope he has a big opportunity waiting for him in what is quite a modestly talented division."
Tim Rickson
BBN Editor
"I know a lot more about Liam Smith than I do Jessie Vargas, but I can see this is a real 50-50 pick'em fight.
Once again, 'Beefy' is heading into the lions den to fight in away territory, which he has done so many times now since his 2016 defeat to Canelo. This is the seventh time since then he has travelled abroad to fight, his last loss ending in controversy in Russia Magomed Kurbanov for the WBO International super-welterweight title. Many thought, including Liam, that he was cruelly denied the decision away from home.
But he bounced back undeterred to demolish local rival Anthony Fowler in Liverpool in October last year.
He has so many fantastic wins on his resume recently, including the two victories over Liam Williams; the quick fifth-round beatdown over Sam Eggington, who is tough as nails and not easily stopped; then the Fowler stoppage most recently. He is still a formidable force on the world scene.
Known as 'The Pride of Las Vegas', Vargas lost his last fight to Mikey Garcia and has only won two from his last six. But when you look at those defeats, they have come at the hands of the world's elite – Tim Bradley; Manny Pacquiao; Mikey Garcia.
Smith will be his first fight in two years, and I believe he has taken his eye off the ball with his activities outside of the ring, whereas Smith fought twice last year, so has momentum and form on his side. Plus, Smith is fully established at the 154lbs weight, but Vargas not so much experience there.
I think Liam will relish being in the away corner and do what he does best by taking the fight to Vargas, relentlessly closing him down to bully him into submission. I think Liam will have the bigger engine, work rate and desire and will win on points."
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