Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois fight breakdown
“The Cat” vs “Dynamite”
Incredible Ukrainian Oleksandr Usyk (20-0, 13KO) will defend his unified heavyweight world titles to British boxer Daniel Dubois (19-1, 18KO) on August 26 at the Wroclaw Stadium in Poland, live on TNT Sports.
It’s a classic boxer vs puncher matchup with the defending champion revered for his extreme skill and challenger Dubois known for his destructive power.
36-year-old Usyk is 10 years Dubois' senior and holds the WBA ‘Super’, IBF, WBO and IBO world heavyweight titles while the Londoner comes into the contest as the WBA ‘Regular’ beltholder, which makes him the mandatory contender.
As the challenger, Dubois has graciously agreed to travel over 850 miles to Poland, which neighbours Usyk’s native Ukraine, who are still caught up in an ongoing war with Russia.
The Central European is a former undisputed cruiserweight champion and now unified heavyweight champ, known for being one of the purest boxers of this generation. He has incredible feet, fast hands, genius movement and can outbox anyone placed in front of him. His 350 amateur bouts (winning 335) and 20 unbeaten pro fights means that he has experienced and triumphed over every style of opponent on earth. He ias arguably the greatest cruiserweight boxer of all-time.
Dubois also had a successful amateur career, in his own right, as an English and International champion, winning 69 from 75, but that is obviously considerably dwarfed by the achievements of a European, World and Olympic champion.
As professionals, they have both boxed in 20 bouts – Usyk is unbeaten and Dubois has lost just once.
Usyk spent his first 16 fights as a cruiserweight and moved up to heavyweight after completing the division. He tested the waters in his first bout with Chazz Witherspoon, resulting in a seventh-round retirement, then jumped into a big test with Derek Chisora, before becoming world champion against Anthony Joshua, where he ripped the belts away from the defending titlist on foreign soil.
In Usyk’s two fights with Joshua, we saw the Ukrainian completely dominate the former flagbearer for British boxing. They first met in the ring in September 2021 and it was one-sided unanimous decision win to the European visitor at the Tottenham Hotspurs stadium in north London (Joshua's backyard). AJ got his tactics completely wrong, trying to box with a boxer, and parted ways with his long-time trainer Robert McCracken not long after.
In the rematch, 11 months later, one judge scored the bout 115-113 to AJ, even though Usyk outlanded him in nine of the 12 rounds, but fortunately the other two officials at ringside did their jobs correctly and scored it the rightful winner, Usyk.
Yes, AJ was improved in his ability and tactics in the return fixture, busier and more technical, but it was yet another masterclass from the unbeaten champion. Joshua was able to land a few big right hands, one in round 10 certainly looked like it had an effect on the former undisputed cruiserweight champion, and his body work was better. But, when Eddie Hearn said he thought AJ “had him” in round nine, he was getting a bit overexcited that Joshua had Usyk covering up and holding for the longest period in the fight, but was never in a hint of trouble at any point. He weathered the storm with ease and allowed AJ to punch himself out. then, in round nine, Usyk landed almost 40 punches on Joshua and looked like a level above him in doing so. Usyk won fight one comfortably, then fight two fairly comfortably, in my opinion.
In Dubois’ sole career defeat to domestic rival Joe Joyce in 2020, it was a close contest all the way up to the 10th round abrupt ending. Dubois took a knee after sustaining relentless accurate jabs to a badly swollen left eye until Joyce eventually caused a fracture to the eye socket, which was a painful injury the south Londoner just couldn’t fight through. It was interesting to see Joyce take Dubois' power, but Dunois couldn't take it back.
Despite requiring surgery, the goliath from Greenwich was back in the ring just seven months later. His following four fights were all won by knockout – in rounds one, two, three and four!
Sounds impressive, however, we have to question the quality of that quartet of combatants. First up was overmatched WBA #2 Bogdan Dinu in Dubois’ comeback match in June 2021, which ended 30 seconds into round two. Dinu’s lofty work ranking was very questionable, he was a big guy with long levers but he was very negative and unambitious, because he threw about three right hands only, sticking to single jabs, and was chinned very quickly and chose to stay down after taking just one big punch. Viewers were left wondering what he was even doing on that stage.
Then there was a 130-second blowout of American Joe Cusumano two months later in August in the States, which included three knockdowns within that quick time. Dubois looked good, but the opponent was no world-beater; he was just a very suitable, non-risky match for the Brit’s U.S. debut.
Then a world title shot appeared around 10 months later, but the defending WBA ‘Regular’ titlist, Trevor Bryan, was not a very credible world champion. The American was slow and cumbersome, missing shots crudely, while his excess belly flab wobbled above his waistline. Dubois finished him off in the fourth after winning the three rounds prior with ease.
Then, his most recent outing was a strange one against former IBO cruiserweight world champion, Kevin Lerena. The South African knocked the home heavyweight down just a minute into their May 2023 fight, then the Londoner was forced to take a knee twice more before the bell saved him. During the rounds, it became clear he had damaged his leg in some way and he spent the second round keeping clear of the visitor while he took time to recover his footing. By the end of the second and start of the third, he looked back to form again, then a single, big lead right hand sent his man sprawling backwards and it was all over just as the bell sounded for the third.
You could review the fight and say that Dubois was knocked down three times by a cruiserweight with less than a 50% KO ratio, or could you be thoroughly impressed with the way he handled a crisis and came back to win in devastating fashion, even when hampered by injury. It’s the latter, for me.
Betting Odds
Defending champion Usyk is the overwhelming favourite to win at 1/12 with Betway Sports and challenger Daniel Dubois is a huge underdog at 8/1. Odds for a draw are 16/1.
Predictions
Their titles tell the complete story already – a ‘Super’ champion versus a ‘Regular’ Champion. Even their monikers tell the tale – “The Cat” with his quick reflexes and swift, supple movements against an explosive “Dynamite” puncher.
If Usyk gets into his rhythm, like he usually does after the first few rounds onwards, then it should be a very one-sided masterclass.
One thing we should see from Dubois is a positive, aggressive performance. He won’t make the same mistakes as AJ and try to box against such a top, world-class, skilful fighter. He should do what he does best and be explosive, which means applying uncomfortable pressure and sticking close to Usyk to be in range to land his big right hands.
“DDD” will always have that ‘puncher’s chance’, this is the heavyweights, where one punch changes everything, but after 370 bouts (winning 96% of them), moving up to heavyweight and having his chin checked by Anthony Joshua and Derek Chisora, it’s difficult to see anyone knocking out Usyk. Even if he is put down, he has the experience and heart to get through and sticky moments.
The Brit’s best shot is to get right up close to the champion from the first bell, to bully him, sit on his chest and follow him around the ring, the same way that Chisora did. Usyk generally starts a little slow, but after rounds one and two have passed, he finds his rhythm and gets into his stride to take over the contest.
You’ll find that intelligent fighters like Usyk and fellow countryman, Vasiliy Lomachenko, can take a couple of rounds to get going because they are making certain movements and adjustments in order to collect data from their opponents.
If there’s an early storm to weather, Usyk has a wealth of experience and skill to draw upon to get through it, then he can get into his stride and potentially cruise the remainder of the contest.
Verdict: Usyk to win on points or a late stoppage.
