Naoya Inoue vs Nonito Donaire 2 – Who wins the rematch?
"The Filipino Flash" Nonito Donaire (42-6, 28KO) and his Japanese rival "Monster" Naoya Inoue (22-0, 19KO) will clash at the Super Arena in Saitama on June 7, with the WBC, WBA and IBF world bantamweight titles on the line, in a fight the whole of boxing will be watching.
But who wins this highly anticipated rematch and why? BBN asked their panel of experts below:
Uros Djikanovic
Boxing manager & advisor
“I think this fight can go either way. First fight was very exciting and I think this rematch will be much better. Donaire is older and has more experinence in the ring, but I personally think Inoue will win this fight because I believe he will be better in the later rounds.”
Tim Rickson
BBN Editor
“Inoue was forced to respect Donaire’s power very early on in their 2019 fight and was hindered by that cut eye all night long. This time, I think he will be very wary and extra careful to avoid that same fate, especially in the first few rounds. On the other side of that coin, Inoue knows what punch will inflict damage and will be looking to whip in that body shot to hurt Donaire again.
Undefeated Inoue has everything to lose but Donaire doesn’t carry that same weight upon his shoulders. Approaching 40, in his 49th fight and 31st championship contest, ‘The Filipino Flash’ will likely be the more relaxed, with Inoue confident as an undefeated champion but also desperate not to slip up. However, the Filipino was 36 in their first meeting and now he's 39, so he's only getting older.
So although Donaire is dangerous and can definitely pull off the upset, I actually believe that Inoue will win again, either on points or by stoppage. I expect his punch output to be higher than his counterpart’s again, and I’ve got this sneaky feeling that he could fatigue Donaire with that greater energy by round 10. Those championship rounds were on fire, but I personally thin it was Inoue that was the stronger and more domiant in those last three crucial rounds.
I'm going to be bold and detail my prediction as a TKO 10.”
Anish Parekh
BBN Writer
"I loved the first fight between the two and I have a day off tomorrow so will definitely be watching.
The way the pair fought in the first contest was sensational with both of them withstanding serious punishment. It was the first time I'd seen Inoue in such trouble.
The rematch could be just as explosive and I won't be taking my eyes off it. I don't envision that they can take as many heavy blows and expect a stoppage from the younger and fresher Inoue, but it wouldn't surprise me if Donaire catches him with that left hook from Hell.
Inoue KO 8."
Archie Goricki
Featherweight prospect
"In this rematch I think that age will be a factor, I see Inoue stopping Donaire in the later rounds. Also think that Naoya will make adjustments and start with much stronger pace then he did in the first fight."
Daniel Yanofsky
Combat Sports Editor for Sporting News
“Before we move forward, we must look back at the initial fight between the two.
During their clash in 2019, Inoue suffered from a cut above his eye (the first time that happened in his career) and a fractured orbital bone. He was able to recover, however, and knocked down Donaire in the 11th round with a body shot. According to CompuBox, Donaire landed 141 shots while Inoue landed 227. Combined, both fighters only landed single-digit shots in four rounds. Inoue would win via unanimous decision in a bout that was named Ring Magazine Fight of the Year.
That was when Donaire was 36. He looked fantastic in defeat, using his lefts towards his advantage. Donaire has looked great since the loss, winning two fights via knockout and winning the WBC bantamweight title in the process. At 39, however, can he bring back some of that magic against “The Monster” in Inoue?
Inoue currently ranks 5th out of all active fighters with a +/- rating of +14.5. His connection percentage is at 35.6%, while his opponents land 21.1% of the time. Donaire has a +/- rating of +0.3. He connects 26.9% of his shots while his opponent lands 26.6% of the time. Looking further into where they stand, Inoue ranks 11th in average total punches landed per round with 23.2. Donaire ranks towards the bottom with 11.3.
Statistically speaking, Donaire won't land the most punches in a fight. He landed 38 out of 136 against Reymart Gaballo (a 27.9% connect rating per PunchStat). What he has been able to, however, going 11-5, is nothing short of incredible. Jabbing away and destroying his opponent with the punches that matter shows why he is a legendary fighter that won't go away that easily.
The last fight between the two was a true classic. “The Monster” has been on a roll like no other, proving why Inoue is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Can they do the same in the rematch years later? Inoue is in his prime, but Donaire has managed to take out Father Time at each and every turn. With a training camp that has made Donaire look sharper than ever, it is hard to picture this being a fight he can easily lose.
Donaire can pull off the win. It is not impossible. As far as the actual winner, Inoue is primed to be one of the true faces of Top Rank and boxing in general. If not a knockout win for either, this fight going the distance makes the most sense. Expect more fireworks in this one.
Inoue via decision.”
Duke McKenzie
Former three-weight world champion
“Inoue-Donaire 2 is still a good fight. Donaire’s recent form has been very good but ‘The Monster’ looks unbeatable at this point in time with no visible chinks in his armor. Inoue wins this once again, this time inside the distance. This should be over inside nine rounds.”
Paul Butler
Two-time world champion
“I think it’s an amazing fight once again but with Inoue being a little more dominant this time around. Donaire still looks brilliant, even at his age, but I think the freshness of Inoue along with the speed and power may take Donaire out late on in the fight with bodyshots.”
Tony Tolj
Boxing manager
“Inoue-Donaire 2 is shaping up to be another classic. Inoue from Round 2 fought through a fractured eye socket, and Donaire can never be underestimated and is like a fine wine, just getting better with age. However, father time waits for no man and I believe Inoue, the ultimate student, will learn from the previous fight and will win and possibly stop Donaire. Inoue by unanimous decision.”
Jason Maloney
World title contender
“I’m really looking forward to the Inoue vs. Donaire rematch and I hope it’s a cracking fight just like the first one was. I think Inoue will have learned a lot from that first fight and with the extra experience and also the improvements he has made over the past two-and-a-half years. I think he wins this rematch much more convincingly. I have enormous respect for Donaire, but at 39 years old, unfortunately I think there has to be a time/ fight when he starts to show his age. I think coming up against a prime Inoue with the extra experience and improvements he has made, this may be the fight we see it. I’m predicting an Inoue win, TKO 10.”
John J. Raspanti
www.maxboxing.com
“Nonito Donaire is flat out amazing. He's 39, and is still a tremendous fighter.
Naoya Inoue is in his prime. He learned a few lessons from his first encounter with Donaire. I see him picking his spots and working the body.
Donaire still has TNT in his left hook, but ultimately Inoue will wear him down and stop him late.”
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