Leigh Wood vs Michael Conlan full fight analysis
It’s been 10 years since Carl Froch’s world title win at the Nottingham Arena, when he defeated and dethroned unbeaten, long-reigning IBF World super middleweight champion Lucien Bute.
In the crowd that night was a young 3-0 prospect named Leigh Wood, cheering fervently for his local hero, who didn’t disappoint with a dominant fifth-round stoppage of a fearsome champion who was in his 10th straight title defence.
Now a world champion himself, 33-year-old ‘Leigh-thal’ Wood headlines the same venue where he once sat in the stands as a screaming fan, and has called this moment in his story as a fairy-tale.
But the WBA ruler isn’t treating this as the pinnacle of his career, he is ambitiously eyeing bigger title fights and venues, aiming to fulfil a lifelong dream to fight at The City Ground, the home Nottingham Forest FC.
Standing in the way of that dream is Belfast’s hero, Mick Conlan. He conquered the world as an amateur and now he gets an opportunity to replicate that as a professional on Saturday night in enemy territory.
The Irish icon won’t be deterred by the hostile crowd as he consistently brings an army of fans himself, whether that’s across the Irish Sea to England or over the Atlantic to America. Rest assured, he will be well supported himself on fight night.
The first thing that’s evident is that the vaster experience lies with the defending champion in the paid ranks, with 27 bouts under his belt compared to Conlan’s lowly 16.
However, a closer look reveals that Conlan’s opponents have all possessed winning records and their combined scores tally to an impressive 224-42. With such an outstanding amateur background behind him, Mick chose not to feast on journeymen, as is custom for any fledgling pro learning the ropes.
Conlan is super skilful, tricky, frustrating, fluid and fleet footed. He nips in and out swiftly, like an amateur, and dips down very low, which lends to his unpredictable punching style. Wood is powerful, has a good shot selection, mixing up body blows with uppercuts and hooks when combination punching.
Wood will be looking to take the centre of the ring, dominate proceedings as the champion, and try to slow his challenger down with some hard hits, who will be persistently moving in and out and side to side. Twice-beaten during his 10-year career, Wood will be looking to land heavily early on in the contest to make a statement and command respect.
I think Conlan has the better ring IQ and is quicker, so will likely catch Wood a lot more when exchanging. I favour Conlan to be the better boxer on the outside where he will likely want to be, just about in range, and I would also choose Conlan to be superior on the inside too, but he could risk getting caught in such close proximity.
If either one of these featherweights gets tagged with a good, clean shot then it’s Wood’s punches that would have the more devastating effect, I believe. Cunningham took some of Conlan’s best shots and although he looked stunned and hurt, he was still standing after 10 rounds of punishment.
Wood’s freakish power has been well documented as trainer Ben Davison often praises him for it. His one-punch knockdown on Can Xu was a fantastic shot, although the Chinese champion did walk onto it in that final round, doubling the impact. But you can just see, hear, feel the power behind Wood’s punches.
Conlan is a delight to watch, a boxing purists dream, but it’s clear he lacks power. For him to stand any chance of stopping this fight early, he would have really break Wood down or land a barrage of unanswered shots to force an intervention from the officiator.
Betting Odds
Challenger Conlan is currently the slight favourite at 8/15 with Betway, while champion Wood is 6/4, and the odds for a draw is low at 17/1.
Verdict
The most obvious options to pick here would be either Conlan to win on points or Wood by stoppage.
Although, I believe Conlan is the better boxer and should win this bout, there’s a chance that his style could result in him getting caught with a flash shot from Wood that could change the fight. For Conlan to go 36 minutes with such a hard puncher, there’s always going to be that risk.
I’m going to play this one safe and pick Mick to win on points.
I would also add that a draw could potentially be on the cards too. Some of the early rounds could be cagey and close, and likely awarded to the home fighter, who is the defending champion in the home corner with the largest support in the crowd loudly cheering every success their man has. Conlan's clean hit-and-don't-get-hit style could swing a lot of rounds in his favour, but if they end the fight going toe to toe, which both have done before, then it could be extremely difficult to split them.
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