Joe Joyce vs Zhilei Zhang – Who wins and why?
What will happen when a ‘Juggernaut’ collides with a ‘Big Bang’?
‘Juggernaut’ Joe Joyce (15-0, 14KO) defends his WBO Interim title to Chinese contender Zhilei Zhang (24-1-1, 19KO) at the Copper Box Arena this Saturday, April 15.
These heavyweight giants both pack a punch, possess amateur pedigree, big-fight experience, boxing skill and lights out power.
So BBN asked their panel of experts for their Joyce vs Zhang fight predictions:
David Allen, Commonwealth heavyweight title contender
“I think it’s a good fight, yeah. I think Zhang’s really good. The Hrgovic fight – I thought Zhang probably won that fight I think. I think Joyce will beat him no problems at all. I think Joyce is all wrong for Zhang.
“I was watching Zhang pre-Hrgovic and he was looking like a two or three round fighter. He was blowing out. Against Hrgovic, I’m not sure what was different. But, while I think it’s a good fight, I think it’s one that’s perfect to make Joyce look good.
“And Joyce is very good. I think Joyce is a danger. I’d put Joyce in that bracket with your Fury, Wilder, Usyk and Joshua, for definite.”
Codie Smith, Unbeaten featherweight prospect
“Joe Joyce, round seven stoppage. Too fit and strong for Zhang.”
Ben Davies, Boxing & MMA Writer at the Mirror
“I would go to Joe Joyce by stoppage. Joyce has shown in recent times that he is just too strong and relentless. Zhang was excellent against Hrgovic, but ran out of steam late on which could play in Joyce's hands knowing that he has always had a good engine. Despite not being the hardest-hitter, Joyce's jab and volume of shots per round set the stool to win and I can see him closing the show again.”
Archie Goricki, IBO International featherweight contender
“My view of that fight is that is a good fight. I favour Joyce but Zhang isn't someone you can look through. It will be competitive fight but Joyce's power will start slowing down Zhang in the middle of the fight.
“I see Joyce by UD decision.”
Tim Rickson, BBN Editor
“Zhang is a sharp counter-puncher so I can see Joyce getting caught with a few combinations early on because the Londoner is a stand up tall fighter who is there to be hit, but he is as tough as they come and shots just bounce off his granite chin.
“I also believe the East Asian is there to be hit, so I can see him eating some big shots from the ‘Juggernaut’ too. Having never been stopped before, this suggests Zhang is durable and will have a few rounds in him, plus he has proven this during a couple of recent wars with Jerry Forrest and Filip Hrgovic. It's not unfair to say Zhang fades in fights. Against Forrest, he was dehydrated and just about heard the final bell, after visibly fading midway, and against Hrgovic, he looked spent towards the end.
“Basically, this is a fight between two Olympic silver medallists, both with respectable pro records and decent punch resistance, but one has an engine and the other does not.
“The pace, pressure and persistence that Joyce will impose from the opening bell, I believe, will force Zhang into submission at some point. Although, Joyce has alluded to being methodical, stating he has a lot of respect for southpaws and for Zhang's power. That said, Joyce always throws in high volumes, so I can't see that changing anytime soon.
“I think Joyce breaks Zhang down over time and stops him in rounds 6-9.”
John J. Raspanti, Lead Writer/Editor at www.maxboxing.com
“Big men, big power!
“Neither will have to work hard to find the other. Zhang will probably catch Joyce early with hard counters. Joyce will gather steam as the fight progresses. I don't see him steamrolling Zhang. The Asian will fight hard, but Joyce is relentless.
“Joe Joyce by stoppage before round 10.”
Uros Djikanovic, Boxing Advisor / Manager
“I think Joe Joyce wins this fight on points. Zhang is a tough opponent. He is also a southpaw so his movement can cause problems for Joyce. I still think Joyce wins but it will not be an easy fight for him.”
Scott Christ, Ring Magazine
“There are three heavyweights in the world I’d pick against Joe Joyce right now, and they are Tyson Fury, Oleksandr Usyk, and Deontay Wilder. I would be unsure about Usyk on the style matchup, and semi-unsure about Wilder on the style matchup, but betting on Wilder’s power has been a pretty good bet thus far in his career, and Usyk is an unparalleled technician at this weight.
“Zhang is not a great technician and I don’t think he wins this slugfest, but he does have a chance, because he’s a fellow refrigerator who hits hard. I think he probably has the better one-punch power of the two of them. He may win some rounds. He may dent Joyce. But he won’t break him. Joyce’s pressure and incredible gas tank will make the difference in the end, but I think we hear the scores, too. Joyce UD-12.”
Neville Burdock Head of Sportsbook at Sporting Index
“At age 37, Joe Joyce doesn’t have much time to waste if he’s serious about becoming a world title holder, and he needs to win convincingly on Saturday if he’s to set up a world title fight with Oleksandr Usyk.
“There’s a real possibility Joyce could put on a show here, and we see him making light work of challenger Zhilei Zhang by stopping the clock in the 23rd minute to secure an 8th round knockout.”
Sporting News
“One cannot deny that Zhang is a hard-hitting heavyweight that can survive anything thrown at him. The same could be said for Joyce. Given their threshold for pain, this could either be an all-out war, or a fight that won’t make it past the eighth round.
“Joyce’s stamina and adaptability gives him the edge here, as he can adapt to any situation. Zhang can strike at any time, bringing his opponent to the ground with one thunderous strike. However, against Joyce’s boxing, Zhang may not be able to hang on for long.
“Earlier, there was a thought that the fight could not go past the eighth. That may be true in this case, and The Sporting News believes that Joyce will use his jabs and calculating offense to wear down Zhang, ending the fight in the middle rounds.
“Joyce via TKO in round seven.”
Daniel Smith, BBN Writer
“A solid jab, power, pressure, and a freakishly unrivalled durability under fire seem to be Joyce's formula for success. However, as Joe can be readily hit, I cannot help but wonder – and this I easier said than done of course – why fighters do not aim to knick the rounds and claim the points win as opposed to swinging for the knockout.
“In previous fights, Joyce has been tagged with big, heavy shots that should have put him to sleep, put him down, or at least budged him slightly. But to date, no-one in the professional ranks has managed to hurt or stop Joe, and this more so than victory, appears to be the main objective his opponents are chasing: being the first man to kayo the guy who cannot be kayoed.
“Whether it's Joe's bone density which enables him to absorb such hurtful blows, or having under sensitive proprioceptive sensory processing receptors, which would ultimately dampen or muffle his experience of the nature of force on impact. Or alternatively, Joe is just one tough mother-fu**er than cannot be stopped through brute force.
“If Zhang can withstand the pressure whilst landing big shots and stealing the rounds, then it'll be one sided. However, like so many before him, if he attempts to go for the knockout by hitting Joyce with the house and everything in it, he'll become exhausted and vulnerable to Joyce's heavy, hurtful punches.”
Sergey Loktev, Champinon.info Sports Editor
“Joyce and Zhang are worthy opponents.
“It is difficult to predict who will win. Nevertheless, I think that Joe Joyce will win by technical knockout.”
Pundh Stats
Joyce ranks fifth among active fighters with total punches thrown at 80.1, while he ranks seventh with average punches thrown (23.2). He averages 39 jabs thrown per round, one point off from Kid Galahad's mark of 40, and second (9) in jabs landed per round, 0.9 off Gennadiy Golovkin's mark of 9.9.
Joyce's opponents have a power punch connect percentage of 41.1%, the highest among active fighters.
Against Iago Kiladze in 2018, Joyce landed 50 jabs out of 109 punches. Facing Daniel Dubois in 2020, he landed 125 shots with 98 jabs. In his last bout against Joseph Parker, Joyce produced 10.2 connects per round on 35.2 jab attempts and landed 106 out of 364.
Against Parker, Joyce went from landing about 10-20 shots to over 40 in three straight rounds.
Against Scott Alexander, Zhang landed four total shots out of 30 attempts.
Against Filip Hrgovic in August 2022, Zhang landed 154 shots out of 395 with five jabs.
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