Gavin Gwynne vs Emiliano Marsili fight breakdown
Gavin Gwynne and Emiliano Marsili clash for the vacant European lightweight title, live on TNT Sports, Friday, December 1st at the York Hall in London
Most people look back on lockdown with bleak memories, but for one man in Merthyr Tydfil it was the making of his career.
Not having to go to work everyday allowed 12-2 lightweight, Gavin Gwynne, to train full-time and really dedicate his life to his craft, which was the catalyst for defeating 11-0 prospect Sean McComb from the away corner in February 2021.
Prior to that Commonwealth title win, he had lost in two British title fights in the two years prior, and only managed to win a Welsh Area belt in three championship contests. It looked like his ceiling had been certified, until he was able to train around the clock and bring more to the table than just being the B-Side.
His losses came at the hands of two-time IBF World champion Joe Cordina and two-time world title challenger James Tennyson. Despite mixing it with them at British level at the time, each fighter went on to the world stage.
The Welshman is now unbeaten in his last five championships fights, but faces his most experienced opponent yet in Emiliano Marsili.
The Italian’s pro debut was over 20 years ago in 2003 and hasn’t lost in 43 bouts since.
‘Tizzo’ has won a national Italian title and regional titles with the WBC and WBA. In 2012, he came to England to defeat Derry Mathews in his Liverpool backyard to win the IBO World lightweight championship.
Now 47, the southpaw has only had four fights in four years, but has won an IBO Mediterranean belt and the European Union title at lightweight.
Despite his lowly KO count – 16 from 43 – he has a wicked overhand left, which he always throws off the jab. He boxes with his hand dropped down as he bounces back and forth in an amateur style with a real spring in his step.
The tough, rugged Welshman is the opposite, preferring to box in close, so this is going to be an interesting, exciting clash of styles.
Will the ageing Italian be able to keep the relentless Welshman at bay for 12 rounds, or will the brutish Brit be able to apply the pressure and overwhelm the visitor like he has to so many others?
Betting Odds
1/9 Gwynne
5/1 Marsili
20/1 Draw
Prediction
This is an interesting clash, not just because of their polar opposite styles – one skilful and selective, operating on the outside; the other rough and rugged, trading on the inside – but also because of their ages and stages of their careers.
Marsili, at 47, is slightly inactive, slowing down, no fights at all this year, while Gwynne is active, conquering and ascending still. Plus, Gwynne has all the advantages – size, height, reach and home.
I think that Marsili could gain an early lead as he picks off Gwynne from the outside, but that the Welshman will gradually catch up, outwork, enervate and exhaust his elder with his higher output and advancements.
I can envisage Gwynne getting caught with Marsili’s southpaw jab copiously, but the pressure and workrate the champion will apply, I believe, will be the key factor in this fight.
Marsili will be hard to pin down, especially early on, so when Gwynne traps him on the ropes, they’re the brief moments he really needs to take advantage of, to unload as much as he can in those short opportunities. The more he can do that, the more his opponent will tire and slow down.
However, if Marsili can box him on the outside for the full 12 rounds and not engage or hold his feet, then he could be on his way to an upset points decision. 36 minutes is a very long time against a pressure-fighter, though.
I’m picking Gwynne to win by stoppage in the second half of the contest.
How to watch Gavin Gwynne vs Emiliano Marsili
