Errol Spence Jr. vs Terence Crawford fight breakdown
“The Truth” vs “Bud”
The fight that the entire boxing world has been calling for, for so many years, is finally here! It’s perhaps a couple of years too late, but at least it’s not Floyd Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao late!
Unified welterweight champion Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr (28-0, 22KO) and WBO king Terence “Bud” Crawford (39-0, 30KO) will lock horns at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 29, live on SHOWTIME PPV in America.
This fight has been likened to Leonard-Hearns, so expectations are at an all-time high. Check out BBN’s fight breakdown below:
Intro
This is the biggest fight of the decade and one that could go down as one of the greatest fights in history, if it lives up to expectations on the night.
Here we have two elite fighters, both unbeaten champions with a lot to lose, much more at stake than just titles, and it couldn't be any closer to call. That’s not all though, these guys have very different styles but also many similarities too. It could be a tense, cagey opening few rounds, but once these welterweight kings get into their rhythm, then it’s going to be an incredible spectacle of pure, masterful boxing skill and talent.
Top trainer Stephen Edwards actually said that this is best suited for the 15-rounds era, because they are throwback fighters who would have flourished in that golden age. He also believes this will be a 'Fight of the Century' contender!
Styles
Terence “Bud” Crawford is a defensive fighter with quick feet, incredible movement, he is a master of range, a swift counter puncher and possesses an exceptional boxing IQ. He’s very adept at finding angles and openings in his opponents’ guard after having worked them out, also due to his masterful movement.
His defensive ability is exceptional, he rarely gets caught out ever. Teddy Atlas actually called Crawford the most instinctive fighter he’s ever seen. This high praise came after watching him take a big right hand from Yuriorkis Gamboa, where he instantly and unconsciously switched stance to avoid another one landing. He also said the same of his skills as a switch-hitter.
As a back foot counter-punching fighter, Crawford can sometimes be guilty of waiting too long to throw. In a fight of this magnitude against a volume puncher, the rounds could go against him if he isn’t active enough.
Errol Spence has a strong jab where he steps in with it, adding weight and momentum to the force of the punch. He is well known for his fantastic ability to attack the body, so he will want to find his way inside of Crawford to do this, but that’s easier said than done.
Terrific Texan Spence is known for his inside game but Crawford is also very skilled up close but just doesn’t show it as much, preferring to exchange at mid-range.
Errol has been stunned in fights before but has come through just fine. It was a right hand to the left ear from Yordenis Ugas of round six in their 2022 fight that saw Spence momentarily dazed for a split second, then he copped another straight right hand flush that sent him reeling backwards into the ropes. He came through the threat to stop the Cuban in the 10th round, but there was a glimpse of vulnerability on display for all to see.
When Spence leans in to throw his powerful one-twos, he can sometimes linger for too long on the front foot after putting so much power behind the backhand. Against an elite counter puncher, that’s a possible weakness to be exploited, but allowing your unbeaten, powerful opponent to throw a one-two while you hold your feet to exchange back is obviously very risky.
33-year-old Spence is the younger, bigger, perhaps slightly stronger guy than 35-year-old Crawford, but the Nebraskan doesn't appear to have any miles on the clock.
Both guys have an almost identical KO ratio but the way they acquire their power and knockouts are completely different. Spence applies educated, non-stop pressure, whereas Crawford is a snappier puncher, who can catch you unawares at any moment.
This fight can be summed up simply as a big, busy, powerful guy against a smaller, skilful, slicker guy.
Betting Odds
Spence is currently 13/8 with Betway Sports and Crawford is 8/15. Odds for a draw are expectedly low at 14/1.
Predictions
For me, I believe that Crawford is the more diverse fighter with the higher IQ. Spence is bigger and stronger, but their KO ratios are almost identical, so both boxers can bang.
I can see “Bud” stunning Spence at least once in the fight, but I’m not sure a stoppage could be possible.
Both guys are going to give this their everything and neither one is going to want to lose, which obviously goes without saying, but what I really mean is that it’s going to take even more effort than ever for either man to be beaten in this fight. The magnitude of this fight means that no one is giving anything up easily.
If anyone finds themselves in trouble, they will dig their way out, no matter what it takes. There is more than history at stake here, there is pride and legacy too. They have both yearned for this fight for years, they have done their talking, and now it’s time for action. When they step through those ropes for the biggest night of their entire career, they will not be leaving anything inside that ring.
Crawford is so reactive and quick, if he can maintain his sharpness for every second in every round, then I’d favour him to land the cleaner punches. Spence will be looking to get inside of him, but Crawford’s movement is so sublime that it is going to be almost impossible unless he holds his feet to try to counter. Spence does possess a good jab, so he may opt to use that to score the rounds in his favour, but the exchanges will be plentiful. It’s those exchanges that will determine who puts their stamp on the fight and takes control.
Verdict: Crawford to win on points.
