Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez fight breakdown
Vaquero faces Fierro in an all-Mexican war
162 years ago, the three-year-long Mexican Civil War came to an end, but on Saturday, August 12, 2023, Mexico will be at war with itself once again as WBO World super-featherweight champion Emanuel Navarrete (37-1, 1KO) clashes with countryman Oscar Valdez (31-1, 23KO) at the Desert Diamond Arena in Arizona.
The Reform War in Mexico lasted for three years and three weeks, during 1858-1861, but, thankfully, this boxing battle is only set go for 12 rounds, but who will emerge from the battlefield victorious?
Trained by Pedro Moran, three-weight world ruler Navarrete is the defending champion, having won the WBO super-featherweight belt in February this year. Prior to that, he held the WBO 126lbs belt since October 2020, and defended his honours four times.
He first became a world champion after a war of attrition with then-unbeaten Isaac Dogboe in 2018, winning via unanimous decision to scoop up the WBO super-bantam belt. Five months later, they did it again, but this time Navarrete won via TKO in the 12th.
Then, within 13 months, between May 2019 to June 2020, Navarrete defended his world title five times and even squeezed in a fight up at featherweight. That activity made him the busiest reigning world champion and earned him the nickname, “Iron Man”.
His last bout with Liam Wilson was a Fight of the Year contender. He got caught by a big left hook in round four and his legs wobbled from under him until he ended up tripping over to hit the canvas, but was well on his way anyway. He came back like a true champion to absolutely batter the Australian to a ninth-round TKO.
His sole career defeat was a four-rounder at the start of his career in 2012, so he hasn’t been beaten in 32 fights and 11 years.
Two-weight world champion, Valdez, once challenged for this belt before, in a unification clash with unbeaten superstar Shakur Stevenson in April last year.
Stevenson kept the fight at long range and frustrated Valdez, who was able to land some big, sneaky lead rights but his body shots had no effect on the American, who managed to pepper his man from distance to cause facial swelling and cuts.
After a 13-month layoff, Valdez came back against Adam Lopez in April this year, three-and-a-half-years after knocking him in his super-featherweight debut in 2019. He dominated the rematch, hurting Lopez time and again, and almost scored the stoppage in the final round of 10.
Trained by Eddy Reynoso, Valdez has a lot of good attributes – good offense, technique, fluid movements – but sometimes he doesn’t put it all together. When he does, you witness utter devastation, like his stunning knockout of Miguel Berchelt where he slipped his shots on the backfoot then landed an hellacious overhand left to stop him in his tracks.
Valdez lost to a technical boxer in Shakur, but Navarrete isn’t technically brilliant, he is very unorthodox with his shots winging in from wide angles. He is a volume-punching, aggressive fighter who likes to box from range so he can swing his shots in, which arrive in wide variations to body and head.
The champion will prefer to keep this fight at range, whereas Valdez will be urging them to stand closer than that. Whatever happens, this is guaranteed to be a barnstormer of a bout, one which most fans are expecting to finish early, with this pair of Mexicans known for their aggression and power.
Betting Odds (Betway Sports)
The champion Navarette is 27/20 to win and challenger Valdez is 5/8. Odds for a draw at 14/1 is at low as it gets.
Predictions
The only thing I’m quite sure of is that it’s not going the distance!
At first, I was picking Navarrete, but then I looked at the ways that Valdez could win this fight, if he gets in on the inside and throws hooks to body and head. If he can put it all together – offence and defence – by fluidly slipping under Navarrete’s long levers and closing the distance to really put the pressure on, Navarrete could become uncomfortable and one of those left hooks could land on the target and hurt him again, like in his last fight.
But whatever I think about, I always come back to Navarrete and his style of keeping the distance so he can throw his long shots, which come in all forms and variations.
He’s the younger man at 28, Valdez is 32; he is the defending champion, bigger, taller, longer wingspan, and has the greater power too. In his eight world title fights, he has won them all, and six were by knockout. Since becoming world champion, Navarrete has won nine from 11 fights by knockout.
Valdez lost to a man that kept the fight at long range, so this may well occur again. But I am quite sure there are going to be very many violent exchanges in what I expect to be an epic all-Mexican war!
Verdict: Navarrete to win via knockout in the second half of the fight to make it 10 KOs from 12 bouts.
