Canelo vs Bivol fight preview – Who wins and why?
The world’s No.1 pound for pound boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez (57-1-2, 39KO) challenges WBA light-heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol (19-0, 11KO) in his bid to become undisputed in another weight class, after unifying all the super-middleweight titles last year.
The Mexican megastar is chasing a legacy and, at this moment in time, it’s almost impossible to bet against him.
This latest matchup is another intriguing one, as Bivol is unbeaten thus far and seems to possess a balanced package of skills and attributes, perhaps lacking in power slightly as his only weakness, but he is coming up against a prime Canelo, who is blitzing his way through accolades and world champions – it only took him 11 months to collect all four world titles at super-middleweight, becoming the first ever boxer to do so in the history of the sport.
So when Alvarez fights, it’s not always a question of ‘Can he win?’, it’s become a puzzle as to what can his opponent possibly do to beat him?!
So let’s see, shall we…
As mentioned already, Bivol is a good all-rounder, but one of his best attributes is his neat footwork. He can keep in range of his opponents with his fast feet, but also step back slightly out of range quick enough to avoid counters.
His jab is fantastic! It’s sharp, stinging and accurate. Despite his average KO count, his jab is strong, especially when he steps in with it, adding plenty of power and pain. It’s one of his best weapons and he knows it because he uses it a lot.
His defence is sound, but the way he steps in so very often and tries to keep in close proximity to his opponents can leave his frame there to be struck back. As one of the world’s best counter punchers, this presents a big advantage for Canelo. He likes to hold his guard up high, which makes him hard to nail clean, but it plays into Canelo’s favour again, who is one of the best body punchers in the world.
The way that Craig Richards came back in their May 2021 fight shows that his high work rate does decrease over time, which is something Canelo will be looking to exploit as someone who is patient and able to stick to a game plan. He will happily go behind on the scorecards for a while, if he has to, believing in his tactics and patiently waiting to deploy them in full.
So, as mentioned earlier, Bivol doesn’t possess a lot of power, but what he does is methodically punish his opponents over time to score his stoppages. However, that will allow Canelo to stand in front of him and absorb some of those shots in order to land his own bigger blows.
Bivol’s best chance of winning is to outpoint Canelo by landing his eyecatching jabs and avoiding anything coming back. That tactic could swing the rounds in his favour.
The Russian should really try to land some big shots early on to gain the respect of his most formidable opponent yet. If the 31-year-old defending champion can land a few hurtful shots, particularly that stinging jab coupled with a few follow-ups, then that may make the Mexican think twice about taking a shot to land a shot.
The six-footer’s last six fights have all ended via unanimous decision, so Canelo is not going to go in there with much respect for his 61st foe’s power.
Another aspect that could affect the champion is the occasion. He may have been the headliner for a long time, but he has never been in a fight of this magnitude before. He will have to use up every ounce of experience and professionalism to not let the big stage get to him.
Betting Odds
Canelo is the favourite to at 2/11 with Betway, while Bivol is 15/4 to retain his title, and the odds for a draw is placed at 20/1, which is fairly low for a Canelo fight.
Predictions
As much as I have tried to build up the chances of Bivol winning this fight, there’s just no going against the man of the moment. I believe Bivol will be successful early on in the fight but that Canelo will turn the heat up down the stretch and score a late stoppage around round 9-12.