Daniel Dubois vs Jarrell Miller fight breakdown
On December 23 in Saudi Arabia, a boxing extravaganza takes place featuring six heavyweight showdowns.
In the co-main events, there’s going to be a mix of fans supporting different boxers. The UK will be fully behind Anthony Joshua against Otto Wallin, but a large part of northern Europe and a lot of Americans will be supporting the Scandinavian, who trains in New York; the entire United States will be cheering for Deontay Wilder, but most of the UK and the while of Oceania are backing Joseph Parker, who trains in Morecombe.
But there’s one fight which will see the entire boxing world come together to will one man to win and that’s Daniel Dubois (19-2, 18KO) when he takes on disgraced drug cheat Jarrell Miller (26-0-1, 22KO).
The New Yorker landed the golden ticket to fight then-champion Anthony Joshua at Madison Square Garden on June 1st, 2019, but was instead found guilty of doping and subsequently banned for two years.
The drug cheat failed multiple tests and was found to have ingested numerous prohibited substances, so he’s not just a drug cheat, he’s a prolific drug cheat and repeat offender.
At the time, he had 20 KOs from 23 victories, so there’s little doubt he had been taking PEDs throughout his entire career, and was only found out when entering a championship fight with mandatory testing.
Many, including promoter Eddie Hearn, believe he shouldn’t be allowed to fight ever again. Because of that, the whole world wants to see Daniel Dubois deliver a humbling to the dishonourable heavyweight.
‘Dynamite’
The Londoner, known as ‘Dynamite’, has 18 knockouts from 19 wins, all of them coming in the first half, 14 within three rounds.
His first loss was to local rival Joe Joyce when both were hovering above British level in 2020. The fight was held during the lockdown era, so things were a little unfamiliar for both unbeaten competitors, with Dubois the slight favourite.
The contest itself was close, it swung back and forth, but Joyce’s accurate, persistent jab peppered Dubois’ left eye until shattering the socket in the 11th, which left him down on one knee, broken and bereft.
Now 26, the Greenwich giant bounced back admirably to KO two average contenders until landing a fortunate shot at the WBA Regular title against the understated champion, Trevor Bryan, who was an easy ticket to a world title win.
His first title defence to Kevin Lerena took a strange turn when the defending champ appeared to be knocked down by the former cruiserweight early in the first round. The disastrous start continued to get worse when he kept having to take a knee to find some respite, but the replays showed he wasn’t getting hit, he was struggling with a leg injury instead. In true champion style, he was able to fight through the hindrance to stop the South African in the third, much to his relief.
While Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury couldn’t get their fight over the line, ‘DDD’ stepped in to fight the Ukrainian in Wroclaw, where he produced further controversy. The challenger dropped the unified champion in round five with a body shot, but it was ruled a low blow, and he was given sufficient time to recover. Then, in round eight, Usyk’s accumulative, unending attacks floored Dubois and it was all over in the ninth after Dubois took a knee and refused to get up, for the second time in his career.
Promoter Frank Warren was furious, arguing that his heavyweight charge had been denied a knockout win, and although Usyk makes a meal out of low blows, an investigation was launched by the WBA and all claims were satisfactorily dismissed, so it was ruled as an official low blow, regardless of how anyone else saw it.
‘Big Baby’
The New Yorker blew his big chance against AJ in his home city, so he’s desperate to get himself back up to the big-time before the curtains close on the 35-year-old’s career.
The Brooklyn boxer also has a high KO count, and can boast 15 stoppages within three rounds, one more than Dubois, although the Brit’s KO-to-win ratio is 95% compared to the American’s 85%.
In the build-up to landing a fight with Joshua, Miller defeated a list of big names, including Gerald Washington, Mariusz Wach, Johann Duhaupas and Tomasz Adamek. Since serving his ban, he hasn’t secured any notable victories, but in his last fight he added another name to his CV – former world champion, Lucas Browne. However, the 44-year-old Australian, who has five losses all via KO within six rounds, has been well past his best for a number of years.
The slugfest between the two lumps, in March this year, ended in the sixth after they shared equal blows, but Miller’s produced the most damage to tip the scales his way. Miller showed no signs of being hurt under the Aussie’s big blows, but Browne appeared haggard very early.
Betting Odds
2/7 Dubois
7/2 Miller
22/1 Draw
Predictions
With 40 KOs between them, no one is expecting this fight to go deep.
Dubois’ last 10 KOs have all ended in five rounds or less, so if he wins, statistics show that it will be in the first half of the contest, with round two his favourite section for a finish.
However, he has been stopped twice, both times taking a knee and choosing to stay down. Against Joyce, he had shattered his eye socket, which isn’t just piercing pain, it’s also a deep-rooted feeling that all is not right. However, it was just a jab that forced him down from Usyk, so many spectators felt like he could have carried on.
Dubois is easy to hit, hence the reason he’s been stopped twice by an accumulation of shots, not just one fight-ending KO. He has a particular problem escaping opponents’ jabs. Both Joyce and Usyk finished him with a single jab.
His guard is leaky, he doesn’t move his head enough, and he’s a little on the slow side. So his defence isn’t impeccable, but his offence is where his strength lies.
Miller is a static target, but he can take a hell of beating. It didn’t matter how many times Lucas Browne landed cleanly and heavily on him, he wasn’t moving back a single inch.
Around a third of Miller’s fights have extended into the sixth round, so the heavyweight relies on gradually getting closer to his slowing opponents where he can land huge hooks in close quarters.
Dubois has to do two things – target the head with big shots and avoid getting drawn in close where Miller can land his powerful hooks.
He has height, speed and power over the American and needs to use those advantages to full effect. He’s not in there with a jabber, so he shouldn’t suffer those previous problems where he is constantly tapped over time causing a deterioration as the rounds wear on.
Daniel Dubois needs to finish this fight early, because the longer he lingers in there, the more dangerous it will be for him.
Miller has got a granite chin, but only three men have made it past the fifth round with Dubois – Kevin Johnson, who is well known for his durability; as is Joyce, who could walk through anything until Zhilei Zhang shattered his invincibility; and lastly there’s Uysk, who is such an incredible mover he barely receives anything meaningful from any opponent.
If the Kevin Johnson fight is anything to go by, who was able to ride a lot of his big shots with his shoulder roll to last the 10 full rounds, then this fight could also go the distance, however, Miller will be eating leather full-on, which could create a different outcome.
Dubois could keep it long to win on points, but Miller will close that gap to turn it into his fight in the second half, so it’s crucial Dubois does as much damage as possible during the early stages.
Miller’s chin looks strong, but no one is invincible, so if Dubois can land heavily enough to hurt his man, then he could secure his 19th KO from 20.
Verdict: Dubois to KO Miller in rounds 3-6.
