Canelo vs Golovkin III – The Trilogy
On Saturday, September 17, undisputed super-middleweight champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (57-2-2, 39KO) and familiar foe Gennadiy Golovkin (42-1-1, 39KO) will do battle once more to complete their epic trilogy in Las Vegas.
After 24 rounds together, these two heroes have hit each other with everything they’ve got and neither man has moved an inch under such considerable power.
They’re so evenly matched in skill, strength and durability; however, it’s Canelo who is ahead on the scoresheets, winning their last fight in 2018, following a controversial draw in 2017.
Despite the uneven score, they have failed to settle their differences in the ring, with many believing Golovkin was the clear winner in fight one, which is why there has been such a demand for the decider. Most fans have this rivalry tied at 1-1, but that's not what the record books say.
The problem is, there’s no longer a level playing field, and you could argue there never was.
In 2017, ‘GGG’ outlanded Canelo in 10 of the 12 rounds, yet one ringside judge, Adalaide Byrd, gave 10 of the 12 rounds to Canelo instead. What boxer stands a chance against officiating like that?!
Golovkin outlanded Canelo widely with 218 punches to 169 – no other opponent has ever been able to land that much – the Kazakh was also far busier, throwing almost 200 punches more than the Mexican.
In the rematch, Golovkin again outpunched the Mexican by 234 to 202. The difference with this fight was that Canelo landed 27 more eyecatching power punches than ‘GGG’, which tipped the scales in his favour.
But now, at 40 years of age, Father Time has finally caught up with the fearsome Kazakh and that’s why he’s a 7/2 underdog.
But its Canelo who comes into the fight off the back of a loss so that’s a big difference in this third fixture, further adding to its intrigue.
These two have detonated their biggest bombs on each other, but been unable to cause even a dent.
During round nine of their first match, Canelo landed the biggest right hand that spun Golovkin’s head round, but he didn’t move even a single inch backwards. In fact, he came forward and it was Canelo retreating as he studied his rival closely for any signs of damage but found none. The iron-chinned Kazakh has even discussed that punch during an interview stating it wasn’t hard and felt like more of a slap.
In the rematch, Golovkin landed a flush right hand on Canelo in round 10, but he also didn’t take a single step back.
So, we know they can take it as well as dish it out. But just how much more can the 40-year-old take at his advanced age?
Canelo has vowed to end his greatest rival’s career with a knockout, and the bookies are backing this bet at 6/4.
The reason why this is no longer seen as 50/50 bout is due to the signs of deterioration ‘Triple G’ has shown in recent fights.
His last appearance against Ryota Murata in Japan earlier this year saw him pushed back in the first few rounds and tagged cleanly several times. Murata targeted the body and managed to make the two-time unified champion visibly wince.
Trainer Johnathon Banks instructed Golovkin to change the rhythm of the fight. From round five, ‘GGG’ took over until the end in round nine, but it was a worrying start from the 40-year-old.
It’s not just that last outing where he looked vulnerable. In 2019 he had to dig so deep to defeat Sergiy Derevyanchenko, narrowly winning by just a single round on one judge’s scorecard and reinstating his status as unified champion.
Since then, he has only fought twice in three years, which is another factor to go against him, against a man who has fought six times in that same period.
If this trilogy begins as round 25, then expect to see both boxers meet in the middle of the ring to stand toe to toe and exchange equally for the entire 12-round duration.
This time, however, Golovkin is going up against Mother Nature as well as his opponent.
Betting Odds
Canelo is the clear favourite at 1/5 with Betway, while Golovkin is 4/1 to gain revenge, and the odds for a draw placed at 20/1.
Predictions
I expect another slow start from Golovkin, with Canelo looking to get to him early. I think he will have an early storm to weather, but Canelo fights in bursts, so should have moments of respite to gradually grow into the fight, but not enough to overcome the early deficit to win.
Golovkin was busiest in their first fight and deserved the win. In the rematch, it evened up and either man deserved to have his hand raised, depending on which way you saw it. In this third fight, I think the younger man will be busier for the first time in their trilogy. Golovkin has slowed, his invincibility has declined, and his output diminished.
To win, he will have to take the frontfoot throughout, never stepping back, and outpunching Canelo, which I just can’t see happening for the entire 12 rounds at his advanced age.
Eight years younger, I expect Canelo to win via unanimous decision with zero controversy this time.
