BBN's Canadian reporter, Dave Darling, breaks down the Beterbiev-Smith fight
Dave Darling has an extensive background in boxing writing and breaking down fights, and here is his expert take on tonight’s colossal unified light-heavyweight clash between defending champion Artur Beterbiev and challenger Callum Smith in Canada.
DD:"Since Artur Beterbiev is the betting favorite and very familiar to me, I will focus on his strengths and weaknesses, and explore exactly what Callum Smith will have to do to exploit the champion and win the night."
ARTUR BETERBIEV
STRENGTHS
1 – SOLID TECHNIQUE
The champ possesses almost "freakish" power with both hands and it goes way beyond simple strength. You see he doesn’t telegraph his punches with the ovewhelming majority of his offence carrying little to no advanced warning at all – In other words he doesn’t drop or pull back his hands or even counter-rotate his upper-body to any obvious extent before unloading and this makes it much more difficult for his opponents to prepare for what's coming. And we all know that in boxing (or any fighting sport for that matter) the most damaging strikes are usually the ones you DON'T see. In addition to this “element of surprise” his shots also don’t have to travel as far to strike their target making everything incredibly compact and even more effective. Finally short, compact punches also require less effort to throw allowing Artur to conserve his energy throughout the contest and outlast his opponents. Now truth be told, not everyone can generate such power over such a short distance and maybe that's actually "his greatest gift".
2 – EXCELLENT PEDIGREE
Among other achievements, an early start (9 years old), hundreds of amateur fights, 2 trips to the Olympics and an amateur “world-championship” put him in very elite company as far as overall experience is concerned.
3 – FOCUSED DEDICATION
Clean living, highly motivated and consistently hard working this young man is like a machine in the gym. In fact his coaches all seem to agree that they’ve never seen anything quite like him. He leads by example and “brings it” everyday.
4 – RISES TO THE CHALLENGE
Artur is one of those special athletes that knows how to handle pressure . . . the bigger the event . . . the more on the line . . . the better he performs. It’s not as if he has found a way to ignore the pressure, he embraces it and actually thrives on it.
5 – A WORLD-CLASS TEAM
Marc Ramsey, John Scully, Andre Kulesza and the rest of his trainers are all top-drawer talent with decades of experience in the sweet-science.
6 – GRACE UNDER PRESSURE
Artur has also demonstrated that he can handle adversity in the ring and rise above it – Just watch the fight with Marcus Browne and you’ll know exactly what I’m talking about.
7 – CONTINUAL IMPROVEMENT
Every time he enters the ring he brings a new skill to the table. During his relatively short pro career I’ve watched the development of a left-hook (body / head), uppercuts with both hands, lead rights as well as improved defensive movement (body / head), distancing and angles. He’s a great student of the game, never stops learning and often likes to say “If I work hard, maybe one day I will be good boxer”
WEAKNESSES
1 – ELEVATED CHIN
Chin a little high at a times during exchanges and is sometimes vulnerable to counter-shots, but has shown improvement in this area of his game in recent fights
2 – RECKLESS AGGRESSION
Sometimes guilty of standing “in the pocket” a little too long and needlessly putting himself at risk of being hit. This is actually quite common among heavy handed fighters who have such belief in their power that they often overlook the inherent danger of the counter-punch. He has, however, also shown considerable improvement in this area as his career advances.
CALLUM’S KEYS TO VICTORY
So (as previously mentioned) the question really boils-down to how Smith can exploit the champ’s weaknesses and leave Canada with some new belts. Now I don’t pretend to know anywhere near as much about the challenger (in this case), but I’ve watched some tape, and along with the obvious height and reach advantage, I’ve picked out a couple of other keys to victory
1 – COUNTER-LEFT-HOOK
While blessed with power across the board the most devastating punch that I’ve seen from Smith is that quick, sneaky, compact and powerful left-hook counter. Usually thrown from relatively close-range, and after his opponent delivers his own right-hand to the head, this punch often finds the chin in a “big way” – In fact I’ve seen him finish several opponents in this fashion and it really seems to be his best weapon to date. So if he can counter Artur’s right and land that hook on an “elevated chin” he may have a chance to hurt the champ and put him on his back. Personally I don’t think that Smith will have much success with this punch, because it carries such “clear and present danger” that the champ (and his team) will have specifically trained to stay away from it. He will block, smother or otherwise neutralize that weapon and in doing so will arguably take away Callum's best chance to win. Infact I would watch for Beterbiev to throw a “shadow right” to the head, quickly lean back in order to evade the left-hook and then come back with another harder lead right to Smith’s momentarily unprotected head. This is pretty advanced stuff (think Robinson, Ali, Mayweather) that takes impeccable timing, great balance and efficient weight transfer, but he did it against Yarde and it represents yet another tool in his belt
2 – CONTROLLING THE ACTION
Playing “the bull and the matador” represents another opportunity for Smith to win on the night if he can effectively out-box Beterbiev to a victory on points. Taller, rangier and with a significant reach advantage the Brit could turn Artur’s aggression against him and use continual movement to pile up the points and frustrate the champ. Unfortunately for the challenger he doesn’t fight well enough off the back foot – Just watch the Canelo fight and it’s pretty clear that while Callum can move reasonably well in all directions he can NOT land effectively while moving backward against truly elite competition. In addition he wasn't sharp enough to catch the shorter man as he moved in and out of range. Lastly he also seemed to be intimidated by Alvarez throughout most of the exchanges and at times almost appeared to be “running”. So if a similar scenario plays out tonight with Beterbiev “stalking” and Smith “retreating” the titles are probably staying on the west side of the pond.
3- FATHER TIME
The final chance for Smith's night to end in victory would be for Artur to suddenly "get old" in the ring and start showing obvious signs of aging – And while it's certainly true that "no body beats father time" I don't believe that age will be play a significant role in this contest. Artur, based on a number of factors, is a very young 38 and his best performances are probably still ahead of him – As Lennox Lewis used to say about his own longevity in the sport "fine wine gets better with age".
FINAL PREDICTION
Beterbiev on points or by late stoppage